YOKOHAMA,
Japan — Climate change is already having sweeping effects on every
continent and throughout the world’s oceans, scientists reported on
Monday, and they warned that the problem was likely to grow
substantially worse unless greenhouse emissions are brought under
control.
The by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations
group that periodically summarizes climate science, concluded that ice
caps are melting, sea ice in the Arctic is collapsing, water supplies
are coming under stress, heat waves and heavy rains are intensifying,
coral reefs are dying, and fish and many other creatures are migrating
toward the poles or in some cases going extinct.
The
oceans are rising at a pace that threatens coastal communities and are
becoming more acidic as they absorb some of the carbon dioxide given off
by cars and power plants, which is killing some creatures or stunting
their growth, the report found.
Organic
matter frozen in Arctic soils since before civilization began is now
melting, allowing it to decay into greenhouse gases that will cause
further warming, the scientists said. And the worst is yet to come, the
scientists said in the second of three reports that are expected to
carry considerable weight next year as nations try to agree on a new
global climate treaty.
In
particular, the report emphasized that the world’s food supply is at
considerable risk — a threat that could have serious consequences for
the poorest nations.
“Nobody on this planet is going to be untouched by the impacts of climate change,” chairman of the intergovernmental panel, said at a news conference here on Monday presenting the report.
The
report was among the most sobering yet issued by the scientific panel.
The group, along with Al Gore, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007
for its efforts to clarify the risks of climate change. The report is
the final work of several hundred authors; details from the drafts of
this and of the last report in the series, which will be released in
Berlin in April, leaked in the last few months.
The
report attempts to project how the effects will alter human society in
coming decades. While the impact of global warming may actually be
moderated by factors like economic or technological change, the report
found, the disruptions are nonetheless likely to be profound. That will
be especially so if emissions are allowed to continue at a runaway pace,
the report said.
It
cited the risk of death or injury on a wide scale, probable damage to
public health, displacement of people and potential mass migrations.
“Throughout
the 21st century, climate-change impacts are projected to slow down
economic growth, make poverty reduction more difficult, further erode
food security, and prolong existing and create new poverty traps, the
latter particularly in urban areas and emerging hot spots of hunger,”
the report declared.
The
report also cited the possibility of violent conflict over land, water
or other resources, to which climate change might contribute indirectly
“by exacerbating well-established drivers of these conflicts such as
poverty and economic shocks.”
The scientists emphasized that climate change is not just a problem of the distant future, but is happening now.
out because of climate change, and some experts believe that droughts
there have contributed to political destabilization in the Middle East
and North Africa.
In
much of the American West, mountain snowpack is declining, threatening
water supplies for the region, the scientists said in the report. And
the snow that does fall is melting earlier in the year, which means
there is less melt water to ease the parched summers. In Alaska, the
collapse of sea ice is allowing huge waves to strike the coast, causing
erosion so rapid that it is already forcing entire communities to
relocate.
“Now
we are at the point where there is so much information, so much
evidence, that we can no longer plead ignorance,” Michel Jarraud,
secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization, said at the
news conference.
The
report was quickly welcomed in Washington, where President Obama is
trying to use his executive power under the Clean Air Act and other laws
to impose significant new limits on the country’s greenhouse emissions.
He faces determined opposition in Congress.
“There
are those who say we can’t afford to act,” Secretary of State John
Kerry said in a statement. “But waiting is truly unaffordable. The costs
of inaction are catastrophic.”
Amid all the risks the experts cited, they did find a bright spot. Since the intergovernmental panel issued its last big report in 2007, it has found growing evidence that governments and businesses
around the world are making extensive plans to adapt to climate
disruptions, even as some conservatives in the United States and a small
number of scientists continue to deny that a problem exists.
“I think that dealing effectively with climate change is just going to be something that great nations do,” said co-chairman of the working group that wrote the report and an earth
scientist at the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, Calif.
Talk of adaptation to global warming was once avoided in some quarters,
on the ground that it would distract from the need to cut emissions. But
the past few years have seen a shift in thinking, including research
from scientists and economists who argue that both strategies must be
pursued at once.
A
striking example of the change occurred recently in the state of New
York, where the Public Service Commission ordered Consolidated Edison,
the electric utility serving New York City and some suburbs, to spend
about $1 billion upgrading its system to prevent future damage from
flooding and other weather disruptions.
The
plan is a reaction to the blackouts caused by Hurricane Sandy. Con Ed
will raise flood walls, bury some vital equipment and conduct a study of
whether emerging climate risks require even more changes. Other
utilities in the state face similar requirements, and utility regulators
across the United States are discussing whether to follow New York’s
lead.
But with a global failure to limit greenhouse gases, the risk is rising
that climatic changes in coming decades could overwhelm such efforts to
adapt, the panel found. It cited a particular risk that in a hotter
climate, farmers will not be able to keep up with the fast-rising demand
for food.enough food,” said Michael Oppenheimer,
a Princeton University climate scientist who helped write the new
report. “When some people don’t have food, you get starvation. Yes, I’m
worried.”
The
poorest people in the world, who have had virtually nothing to do with
causing global warming, will be high on the list of victims as climatic
disruptions intensify, the report said. It cited a World Bank estimate
that poor countries need as much as $100 billion a year to try to offset
the effects of climate change; they are now getting, at best, a few
billion dollars a year in such aid from rich countries.
The
$100 billion figure, though included in the 2,500-page main report, was
removed from a 48-page executive summary to be read by the world’s top
political leaders. It was among the most significant changes made as the
summary underwent final review during an editing session of several
days in Yokohama.
The
edit came after several rich countries, including the United States,
raised questions about the language, according to several people who
were in the room at the time but did not wish to be identified because
the negotiations were private. The language is contentious because poor
countries are expected to renew their demand for aid this September in
New York at a summit meeting of world leaders, who will attempt to make
headway on a new treaty to limit greenhouse gases.
Many
rich countries argue that $100 billion a year is an unrealistic demand;
it would essentially require them to double their budgets for foreign
aid, at a time of economic distress at home. That argument has fed a
rising sense of outrage among the leaders of poor countries, who feel
their people are paying the price for decades of profligate Western
consumption.
Two
decades of international efforts to limit emissions have yielded little
result, and it is not clear whether the negotiations in New York this
fall will be any different. While greenhouse gas emissions have begun to
decline slightly in many wealthy countries, including the United
States, those gains are being swamped by emissions from rising economic
powers like China and India.
For
the world’s poorer countries, food is not the only issue, but it may be
the most acute. Several times in recent years, climatic disruptions in
major growing regions have helped to throw supply and demand out of
balance, contributing to price increases that have reversed decades of
gains against global hunger, at least temporarily.The
warning about the food supply in the new report is much sharper in tone
than any previously issued by the panel. That reflects a growing body
of research about how sensitive many crops are to heat waves and water
stress. The report said that climate change was already dragging down
the output of wheat and corn at a global scale, compared to what it
would otherwise be.
David B. Lobell,
a Stanford University scientist who has published much of the recent
research and helped write the new report, said in an interview that as
yet, too little work was being done to understand the risk, much less
counter it with improved crop varieties and farming techniques. “It is a
surprisingly small amount of effort for the stakes,” he said.
Timothy Gore, an analyst for Oxfam,
the antipoverty group that sent observers to the proceedings in
Yokohama, praised the new report as painting a clear picture of the
consequences of a warming planet. But he warned that without greater
efforts to limit global warming and to adapt to the changes that have
become inevitable, “the goal we have in Oxfam of ensuring that every
person has enough food to eat could be lost forever.”http://loverytnews247.blogspot.com/